Seal Beach commercial real estate outlook: jobs, submarkets and the city budget

How many people live in Seal Beach, and is Orange County growing?

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the Seal Beach city population at 25,116 in 2020, 24,294 in 2024 and 24,075 in 2025.^[1] For comparison, the same Census Bureau release puts neighboring Los Alamitos at 11,772 in 2020 and 11,702 in 2025, and Cypress at 50,052 in 2020 and 48,781 in 2025.^[1] Long Beach also borders Seal Beach, but it sits in Los Angeles County, so its numbers belong to a different county market.

At the county level, the Census Bureau puts Orange County at 3,186,167 people in 2020, 3,158,027 in 2024 and 3,149,507 in 2025, a one-year change of minus 8,520.^[1] Natural increase was 7,721 and international migration was 9,161, while domestic migration was minus 25,357.^[1] Why it matters: if your plan depends on resident-serving retail or services, ask how the change in resident population, from 24,294 to 24,075 in Seal Beach city and from 3,158,027 to 3,149,507 in Orange County, bears on the trade area you are underwriting.

What do Orange County jobs and unemployment figures show?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 1,663,154 jobs in Orange County in March 2026 across 160,601 establishments, with an average weekly wage of $1,766.^[2] Private professional and business services employed 306,530 people at an average weekly wage of $2,157, and private financial activities employed 101,493 at $3,185.^[2]

Private leisure and hospitality employed 231,011 people at an average weekly wage of $765.^[2] Private manufacturing employed 146,025, and the Bureau reports that figure fell 3.2 percent over the year.^[2] The Bureau's Orange County unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in June 2026, 4.2 percent in July and 4.4 percent in August (preliminary).^[3] Why it matters: if you are signing a lease with a tenant or as one, ask how the term and renewal options would work if conditions change.

How is the Seal Beach office submarket performing?

Kidder Mathews tracks a Seal Beach office submarket of 573,645 square feet. In its third quarter 2026 report, direct vacancy is 7.5 percent, sublet vacancy is 2.4 percent, total vacancy is 9.9 percent and total availability is 11.7 percent.^[4] Direct net absorption was minus 409 square feet in the quarter and 2,488 square feet year to date, and total leasing was 2,543 square feet in the quarter and 16,241 square feet year to date.^[4] The average asking rent is $3.53 per square foot per month on a full-service basis.^[4]

Why it matters: if you are weighing office space, ask for the lease terms behind the asking rent, and check whether a quoted rate is full-service, as the $3.53 figure is.

What do the Seal Beach industrial submarket and Orange County retail show?

Kidder Mathews lists a Seal Beach industrial submarket of 941,679 square feet with 0.0 percent direct, sublet and total vacancy in the third quarter of 2026, total availability of 9.4 percent, and no net absorption or leasing in the quarter or year to date.^[5] The report does not publish an asking rent for this submarket, so none is shown here. For context, Kidder Mathews reports the wider West County industrial submarket at 40,240,372 square feet with 6.5 percent total vacancy and an asking rent of $1.31 per square foot per month, triple net.^[5]

Kidder Mathews does not break retail out by submarket. For all of Orange County, its third quarter 2026 report shows 3.3 percent vacancy, an asking rent of $2.77 per square foot per month, a sales price of $546 per square foot and a cap rate of 5.2 percent.^[6] No sourced Seal Beach retail vacancy or rent series exists, so treat county retail as context only. Why it matters: if you are looking at a Main Street storefront, ask for the actual rent roll and listing history instead of leaning on a county average.

What does the city budget say about property tax, Measure GG, sales tax and hotel tax?

The City of Seal Beach adopted budget for fiscal year 2026-27 shows property taxes of $17.0 million, 34 percent of General Fund revenues, the largest single source.^[7] The Transaction and Use Tax (Measure BB and GG) is projected at $9.1 million, about 18 percent of General Fund revenues, and voters approved Measure GG in November 2024.^[7] Sales and use tax is $4.8 million, or 9.6 percent, and the city receives 1 percent of the sales tax.^[7]

The hotel tax, formally the Transient Occupancy Tax, is $2.0 million, or 4.0 percent of General Fund revenues, at a 12 percent rate.^[7] The budget says Transient Occupancy Tax revenue "remains relatively consistent" as the city's three hotels are at capacity, and it does not give a room count.^[7] The property tax line runs $15,808,550 for fiscal 2024-25 (actual), $16,327,000 for 2025-26 (estimated) and $17,029,000 for 2026-27.^[7] Why it matters: if you are weighing a project, ask the City how it would be treated for tax purposes.

Which council goals affect Main Street retail and parking?

The FY 2026-27 council goals include Main Street Beautification, a Paid Parking Report, a Business First Working Group and a 2028 Olympics Working Group.^[7] The paid parking goal is to evaluate options for paid parking feasibility to improve management and generate sustainable revenue, and the Business First group is to evaluate updates to the Main Street Specific Plan.^[7] The budget also notes that fiscal 2025-26 work included evaluating parking strategies in the Main Street area.^[7]

A May 2026 Seal Beach Sun update reports that Main Street demonstration lights were installed, that full corridor deployment is pending council feedback, and that the parking municipal code has been updated to reflect current parking technology.^[8] Why it matters: if a space depends on customer parking, ask what the city decides on paid parking before you sign a lease, and ask whether any Specific Plan update changes the use you have in mind.

What is the proposed Old Ranch project, and what is the 2028 Olympics working group?

The City of Seal Beach draft environmental report lists a proposed Old Ranch Country Club project, with its own environmental report in preparation, that includes a medical office facility and overnight accommodation.^[9] The draft report lists it as proposed, with its own environmental report in preparation.

The 2028 Olympics Working Group exists to position the city to benefit from regional opportunities associated with the 2028 Olympic Games, per the city budget, and the Seal Beach Sun reports an Olympic Committee was formed at the January 26 council meeting.^[7][8] Why it matters: if you are thinking about visitor retail, restaurants or a hotel, ask the City about the working group's role and check for later council updates.

How do the building types compare as a Seal Beach outlook?

The municipal code, as mirrored on a third-party host, sorts commercial land into districts, and parcel zoning should be confirmed with the City.^[10] Each type below leans on a different data source above.

• Main Street storefront retail, restaurants and upper-floor offices: the Main Street Specific Plan calls for offices on upper floors along Main Street.^[10] Watch the parking and Specific Plan goals.
• Professional and medical office: the PO district allows office, medical and related uses.^[10] Use the Kidder office table.
• Shopping centers and auto-oriented commercial: the GC district is meant for sub-regional and regional centers.^[10] Use county retail as context only.
• Business park and light manufacturing: the LM district covers business-park commercial services and light manufacturing.^[9] Use the Kidder industrial table.
• Hotels: the city counts three hotels and taxes stays at 12 percent.^[7]
• Mixed use: the MC-RHD district pairs commercial and office uses with high-density residential.^[10]
• Anchor employers: the city names Boeing as one of its major employers and lists the U.S. Naval Weapons Station among its local features.^[7]